# Jon-Becker/prediction-market-analysis

A framework for collecting and analyzing prediction market data, including the largest publicly available dataset of Polymarket and Kalshi market and trade data.

Repository: https://github.com/Jon-Becker/prediction-market-analysis
Canonical: https://ross.abutalabs.com/products/prediction-market-analysis
Homepage: https://jbecker.dev/research/prediction-market-microstructure
Language: Python
License: MIT
License Family: permissive
Topics: data, data-science, kalshi, prediction-markets, statistics, datasets, polymarket
Last push: 2026-08-10T14:09:43+00:00

## Health v2 (maintenance only)
Score: 60/100 (v2, computed 2026-09-02T17:46:02.011165+00:00)
- activity 97, release rhythm 35, longevity 20
- inputs: {"age_days": 284, "days_push": 23, "days_rel": null, "gap_med": null, "n_releases_24m": 0}
- flags: no_releases
- formula: round(0.45*activity + 0.35*rhythm + 0.20*longevity); archived -> min(score, 10)

## Adoption (not part of the score)
Stars 3774, forks 532 (observed 2026-08-28T04:08:18.191811+00:00)

## What it is
A Python framework for collecting and analyzing prediction market data from Polymarket and Kalshi, including the largest publicly available dataset of market and trade data. It provides API/blockchain indexers, Parquet-based storage, and an extensible analysis framework for generating statistics and figures.

## Use cases
- download historical polymarket and kalshi trade data
- analyze prediction market microstructure and longshot bias
- collect prediction market data via api
- research wealth transfer in betting markets
- run statistical analyses on market trades
- study market maker vs taker returns

## When to choose
- you need large-scale historical prediction market data for research
- you want reproducible analysis pipelines over Polymarket/Kalshi data
- you study market efficiency or longshot bias empirically

## When to avoid
- you need real-time trading or order execution
- you only want a small sample of current market prices
- you cannot handle a 36GiB dataset download

## Facets
- artifact type: dataset
- maturity: active
- function: data-science, etl, analytics, data-visualization
- domain: data-science, analytics, fintech, big-data
- platform: python, cli, cross-platform
- tags: prediction-markets, polymarket, kalshi, parquet, market-microstructure, trading-data, research

## Member repositories
- Jon-Becker/prediction-market-analysis (main) score 60

## Provenance
- Observed fields: from GitHub, fetched 2026-08-28T04:08:18.191811+00:00.
- Health v2: computed from the inputs above; adoption is never an input.
- Inferred fields (summary, facets, guidance): AI-extracted, prompt v1, taxonomy v1, on 2026-08-29T18:27:50.808034+00:00, confidence not recorded.
  - readme: https://github.com/Jon-Becker/prediction-market-analysis (fetched 2026-08-28T04:08:18.191811+00:00, sha fca844720378)
  - homepage: https://jbecker.dev/research/prediction-market-microstructure (fetched 2026-08-29T09:22:36.880657+00:00, sha f3a0a94eaab1)
- Data as of 2026-08-30T08:39:29.467469+00:00.