# neherlab/covid19_scenarios

Models of COVID-19 outbreak trajectories and hospital demand

Repository: https://github.com/neherlab/covid19_scenarios
Canonical: https://ross.abutalabs.com/products/covid19_scenarios
Homepage: https://covid19-scenarios.org
Language: JavaScript
License: MIT
License Family: permissive
Topics: covid-19, sars-cov-2, coronavirus, ncov, open-source, science, research, model, hospital, covid, ventilator, opensource, modelling, data, neherlab, outbreak, simulation, population
Last push: 2022-02-15T19:04:38+00:00

## Health v2 (maintenance only)
Score: 23/100 (v2, computed 2026-09-03T02:20:16.233290+00:00)
- activity 0, release rhythm 8, longevity 100
- inputs: {"age_days": 2377, "days_push": 1660, "days_rel": null, "gap_med": null, "n_releases_24m": 0}
- flags: none
- formula: round(0.45*activity + 0.35*rhythm + 0.20*longevity); archived -> min(score, 10)

## Adoption (not part of the score)
Stars 1351, forks 345 (observed 2026-08-28T04:04:28.379448+00:00)

## What it is
A web application for modeling COVID-19 outbreak trajectories and hospital demand using epidemiological simulation. It provides an interactive browser-based interface for exploring pandemic scenarios and healthcare resource needs.

## Use cases
- model covid-19 outbreak trajectories
- estimate hospital bed and ICU demand during a pandemic
- explore effects of interventions on epidemic curves
- simulate ventilator demand for a population
- compare pandemic scenarios with different parameters

## When to choose
- you need a browser-based epidemiological curve simulator for COVID-19
- you want to project hospital and ICU demand from outbreak scenarios
- you need an open-source, MIT-licensed pandemic modeling tool

## When to avoid
- you need modeling for diseases other than COVID-19
- you need actively developed software with recent updates
- you need a general-purpose epidemiology modeling framework

## Facets
- artifact type: application
- maturity: maintenance
- function: simulation, data-visualization, charts
- domain: healthcare, data-visualization, simulation
- platform: cross-platform
- tags: covid-19, epidemiology, outbreak-modeling, hospital-demand, javascript, react, web

## Member repositories
- neherlab/covid19_scenarios (main) score 23

## Provenance
- Observed fields: from GitHub, fetched 2026-08-28T04:04:28.379448+00:00.
- Health v2: computed from the inputs above; adoption is never an input.
- Inferred fields (summary, facets, guidance): AI-extracted, prompt v1, taxonomy v1, on 2026-08-30T04:42:13.520939+00:00, confidence not recorded.
  - readme: https://github.com/neherlab/covid19_scenarios (fetched 2026-08-28T04:04:28.379448+00:00, sha 29169f08f688)
  - homepage: https://covid19-scenarios.org (fetched 2026-08-29T12:01:15.061047+00:00, sha 59f90ba39008)
- Data as of 2026-08-30T08:39:29.467469+00:00.